The forecasts aren't a crash warning. Both firms say U.S. stocks are expensive compared with history, and expensive starting points have usually meant slower returns afterward. As one expert told Yahoo Finance this week, “savers could be surprised by the pace of their retirement cushion's growth.” For someone retiring on a plan built around 10% a year, that surprise is the problem.
Vanguard
Next 10 years
4.8% to 6.8% a year (midpoint 5.8%)
Fidelity
Next 20 years
5.8% a year, about 3.2% after inflation
S&P 500 history
Since 1957
About 10% a year on average
Why Retirees Look at Vacation Rentals
A rental pays in cash flow, not just in price growth, which is what most retirees actually need. Rents and nightly rates tend to move with inflation over time. The property can appreciate. And in Tampa Bay, it can double as the place you spend part of the winter. Florida also has no state income tax, which is part of why so many retirees own property here in the first place.
All of that is true. None of it means a vacation rental beats a portfolio by default. The comparison only works if you use the right number, and that number is almost never the one on a listing site.
What Tampa Bay Rentals Really Gross
These are average annual revenues per listing for the 12 months to October 2026, from the two data sources in our Tampa Bay market report. AirROI counts Airbnb only; AirDNA also counts Vrbo and Booking.com. They measure differently, so both are shown.
Market
AirROI
AirDNA
1-yr change
Indian Rocks Beach
$73,136
$68.4K
+13.9%
Clearwater (city)
$42,984
$39.3K
+8.4%
Dunedin
$38,950
$41.8K
+8.4%
Tampa
$28,448
$33.9K
−5.3%
St. Petersburg
$21,909
$32.9K
+1.4%
Size matters as much as location. In AirROI's data, the median home earned:
Market
3 bedrooms
4 bedrooms
Tampa
$31,000
$46,700
Indian Rocks Beach
$72,300
$116,000
Averages also hide how far apart operators are. In Tampa, AirROI reports the busiest quarter of listings booked on 67% or more of nights against 46% for the median listing. Two identical houses on the same street can produce very different retirement incomes.
The Number to Compare With 5.8%
Every figure above is gross revenue. Before it reaches you, it pays for management, cleaning, utilities, internet, insurance, property tax, HOA dues, maintenance, supplies and platform fees. The guest-paid taxes, Florida sales tax and the 6% county tourist development tax in Hillsborough and Pinellas, pass through to the state and county and aren't yours either.
Here's a simple way to frame it. If you have $500,000 in a property and want it to match a 5.8% stock return in cash income alone, it has to net $29,000 a year after every expense. To illustrate, if expenses took half of gross revenue, the home would need to gross about $58,000. That's above the Tampa average in both data sources and above the median Tampa 4-bedroom, and well within reach of a good Indian Rocks Beach 3-bedroom. Your expense share will be different; the point is to run it with your own numbers, not ours.
The short version
Net income divided by the cash you have in the property is the only fair comparison with a stock forecast. Appreciation and mortgage paydown can add to the return, but they don't pay the grocery bill. If you're counting on monthly income, count only the net.
What a Stock Forecast Doesn't Have to Account For
Liquidity
You can sell a fund on a Tuesday afternoon. Selling a house takes months and costs several percent of the price in commissions and closing costs. Money you might need for health care shouldn't be your only rental equity.
Concentration
A stock forecast is for thousands of companies. A rental is one building in one ZIP code, with one roof, one insurance policy and one county budget. AirROI's data shows Tampa revenue per listing down 5.3% in a year while Indian Rocks Beach rose 13.9%. Location decides more than the market average.
Hurricanes and insurance
Storm years mean cancellations, repairs and higher premiums. A retirement plan that depends on rental income needs a cash reserve sized for a bad season, not an average one.
Property tax and local fees
A rental gets no homestead exemption. Amendment 3 caps its assessment increases at 5% a year from 2027, but Tampa Bay governments are already discussing new fees to replace lost revenue, and per-parcel fees fall fully on rental owners.
The work
Guest messages at 11 p.m., turnovers on holidays, a broken AC in August. Self-managing is a job, and it gets harder with age. Professional management costs a share of revenue, and it belongs in your numbers from day one.
On the tax side, we covered what changes for rentals in Amendment 3 passed: what changes for vacation rental owners. On the hurricane side, see why AirCover isn't insurance.
If You Already Own the Home
Many people asking this question aren't buying. They already own a paid-off Tampa Bay house, maybe an inherited one or the family home they're about to downsize from. For them the question is different: what does this house earn as a vacation rental, compared with a long-term lease or selling and investing the proceeds? We walk through that choice in Airbnb or 12-month lease and inherited a house in Tampa Bay: sell, rent or Airbnb.
One warning for anyone renting the home they live in: under section 196.061 of the Florida Statutes, renting all or substantially all of a homestead can cost you the exemption. With Amendment 3 taking it to $250,000 by 2028, that's a bigger number than it used to be. Ask your property appraiser first.
Five Tests Before You Count on Rental Income
1. Start from net, not gross
List every cost: management, cleaning, utilities, internet, insurance, property tax, HOA, maintenance, supplies, platform fees and a reserve for replacements. What's left, divided by the cash you have in the property, is the number to compare with 5.8%.
2. Price the downside year
Run the numbers again with 20% less revenue and a $10,000 repair. If that version breaks your monthly budget, the rental is a growth bet, not retirement income.
3. Pick location over price
The gap between a Tampa 3-bedroom and an Indian Rocks Beach 3-bedroom in AirROI's data is more than $40,000 a year in gross revenue. A cheaper house in a weaker submarket can be the more expensive retirement decision.
4. Decide your own calendar first
If you plan to spend January through March in the home yourself, you're blocking the best months. AirROI's data puts March as the top month in every Tampa Bay market it reports. Know what your personal use costs before you count on the income.
5. Get tax and homestead answers in writing
Rental income, depreciation, Florida's tourist development and sales taxes on guest stays, and homestead status all affect what you keep. Talk to a CPA who works with short-term rentals and your county property appraiser before you buy or list.
The Honest Version
A lower stock forecast doesn't make a vacation rental a better investment. It makes the comparison worth doing carefully. A well-located, well-run Tampa Bay rental can produce real retirement income, and a poorly located or poorly run one can turn into a second job that pays less than a bond fund. The difference is mostly location, size and how the property is priced and managed, and all of it shows up in the net number.
If you own a home in Tampa Bay, or are thinking about buying one, the first step is knowing what it would realistically earn. Start with a free revenue estimate or talk to us about what professional management would leave you after costs.
Return forecasts are from Vanguard's 10-year outlook and Fidelity's 20-year capital market assumptions as reported by Yahoo Finance on November 9, 2026. Rental revenue figures are from AirROI and AirDNA for the 12 months to October 2026, read November 9, 2026. The $500,000 example and 50% expense share are illustrations, not market data. Homestead rules refer to Fla. Stat. § 196.061. This article is general information, not investment, tax or legal advice. Talk to a licensed financial adviser and a CPA about your situation.
Frequently Asked Questions
What did Vanguard and Fidelity forecast for stock returns?
Vanguard's 10-year outlook projects U.S. stocks to return 4.8% to 6.8% a year, a midpoint of 5.8%. Fidelity's 20-year assumptions put U.S. stocks at 5.8% a year before inflation and about 3.2% after it. Many retirement calculators assume something close to the S&P 500's long-run average of about 10%. Both firms point to high valuations, and neither is predicting a crash.
How much does a vacation rental in Tampa Bay earn?
It depends heavily on location and size. For the 12 months to October 2026, AirROI reports average revenue of $28,448 per Airbnb listing in Tampa, $21,909 in St. Petersburg, $42,984 in Clearwater and $73,136 in Indian Rocks Beach. AirDNA, which also counts Vrbo and Booking.com, reports $33.9K in Tampa and $68.4K in Indian Rocks Beach. These are gross revenue, before any expenses.
Is a vacation rental better than stocks for retirement?
Not automatically. Compare the rental's net income after every expense, divided by the money you have in it, with what that money would earn elsewhere. Then account for what the forecast numbers don't: a rental is one property in one market, it can't be sold in a day, it carries hurricane and regulatory risk, and it takes management. For some retirees it's a good income source alongside a portfolio. It's rarely a replacement for one.
Can I live in my Tampa home part of the year and rent it the rest?
Yes, and many owners do. But if you claim the home as your homestead, renting all or substantially all of it can cost you the homestead exemption under section 196.061 of the Florida Statutes. With Amendment 3 raising that exemption to $250,000 by 2028, get your county property appraiser's answer before you list it.
Written by Mark Malevskis — owner of Emperor Rentals, Tampa Bay's White-Glove vacation rental management company. Want to know what your home would really net? Let's talk →